As marketers, we appreciate the need for conducting accurate research whether it’s for an opinion poll about a product or to gauge the mood of voters for a candidate or issue during local and national elections.

A recent U.S. government survey throws a wrench into the usual telephone survey methodology. The study estimates that up to 17 percent of adults have ditched their landline phones, nearly doubling the trend of cell-only users since 2003. Another recent survey by The Pew Research Center reports 23 percent of landline users say they are “very or somewhat likely” to go cell-only.

Both of these studies present considerable challenges for researchers conducting public opinion polls – whether it’s a news organization striving to obtain an accurate snapshot of how people are going to vote, or for thousands of corporations that depend heavily on market research for product development.

With cell-only users significantly less accessible than landline respondents, many in the public opinion research community wonder if the polls conducted this election season are reflecting true voting trends, especially among the 18 to 29 age group, which represents the largest portion of cell-only users.

To address this issue, the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducted three major election surveys using cell phone, landline, and “dual user” samples. Each survey resulted in small but not statistically significant differences compared to the polls by major news and research organizations. However, the younger age group – the largest proportion of cell-only users – showed a consistent pattern of more support for Obama. This raises an important question for pollsters about whether or not the difficulty in reaching the younger demographic group will impact their expected results on Election Day.

“Even though the omission of cell phones from election polls does not currently make a large difference in the substantive results, Pew’s surveys this year suggest at least the possibility of a small bias in landline surveys. Such a bias could be consequential in an election that appears to be very competitive right now, especially if significant numbers of young people turn out to vote.” ( http://pewresearch.org/pubs/964/).

The challenge in obtaining information from cell-only users will only increase as more households become wireless. The biggest obstacles facing researchers right now are associated with costs, as federal law prohibits automated dialing to cell phones. Another costly factor is the time involved reaching eligible respondents since many children carry cell phones and random calls will frequently reach those under voting age. Polling organizations may also have to prepare to reimburse respondents to answer questions, as cell phone users pay for airtime and may be reluctant to stay on the line.

Political and market researchers are anticipating how the outcome on Nov. 4 will reflect the polling data and what changes will have to be made in reaching a balanced proportion of Americans for future surveys. We in marketing should all keep a careful eye on the election results tomorrow as they are measured against the polling data, which could very well influence how we move forward with our own market research projects.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 am and is filed under Marketing, Public Relations, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.